Monthly Specials (March 2025)
Two fresh ideas for a messy start of the year: Amazon and Topicus
Welcome to the March 2025 Monthly Specials!
Each month, I highlight stock ideas—whether for swing trades or long-term investments—focusing on growth and quality companies that have caught my attention. Picks are based on qualitative insights, fundamentals, and/or technical setups.
🔹 Missed last month’s picks? Catch up here:📎 Monthly Specials (February 2025)
What’s in store for March?
Perfect timing for this Monthly Specials as ‘markets in turmoil’ navigate Trump-induced turbulent waters. But that shall not stop me from bringing two fresh picks—Amazon (AMZN) and Topicus (TOI). Very different in size and nature, but both showing setups with potential this month and throughout this year.
No deep dive into fundamentals this time—just price action, momentum, and key levels to watch.
👀 Why focus only on technical setups in this Monthly Specials instead of diving into fundamentals?
Well, I’m saving some powder for upcoming articles:
📌 Amazon: Deep Dive Brief coming in April.
📌 Topicus: Will be featured in my Hidden Gems - Fourth Edition later this year, alongside another gem from the Constellation Software universe.
Without further ado, let’s dive in.
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🛒 Amazon (AMZN)
An “Old” High-Quality Opportunity?
What more can be said about this giant? Plenty.
Since the Covid-19 era, Amazon has been reinventing itself into a more operationally efficient, cost-effective juggernaut, primed to tap into high-margin opportunities in AI, robotics, and advertising. But let’s save the business details for my upcoming Amazon deep dive brief—for now, let’s dive straight into the technicals.
Technical Setup – Key Support Level Holding the Line?
✅ Amazon is retesting its key breakout level around $190-200, continuing its climb from its multi-year base (2022–2024)
✅ In the midst of this market “turmoil”, the price has dropped from ATHs to land on the 50-week MA, which initially held but gave way to a second support level around $190, aligning with its previous breakout. The stock is now attempting to stabilize.
✅ Looking stronger than other Big Tech peers—GOOG and MSFT have fallen further below their 50MA and are struggling to reclaim their bullish stance.
⚠️ Critical moment ahead: This $190-200 zone is key for keeping the bullish setup intact (at least in the short term). A breakdown could open the door to more downside, with momentum indicators flashing a "make or break" signal, as we’ll see next.
Key Indicators
🔹 MACD: Still above the zero line, but the MACD (blue line) crossed-down and momentum has weakened with the recent market pullback. Watch for signs of stabilization (flattening MACD) this week.
🔹 Volume: First above-average selling volume in months—not alarming yet, but something to monitor.
🔹 Support Levels:
📌 $190 – Key long-term support from the multi-year base (2022–2024).
📌 $160–$170 – Next major support zone if the breakdown continues.
Final Take
Not the most convincing setup given the circumstances, but after last few days’ sharp sell-off in US equities, few charts look great. This week will be crucial in determining Amazon’s short-term direction heading into the end of March.
The bullish pattern remains intact—but only if the stock holds above the $190 level. A break below could open the door for further downside. Let’s see how it plays out!
Before diving into our next Europe-based gem, let’s take a moment to explore what else Expanse Stocks has to offer 👇
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🦎 Topicus (TOI)
One Hell of a Spin-off Emerging from the Constellation Software Universe 🌌
If you’ve been following Expanse Stocks, you probably haven’t seen me write much about the Constellation Universe—unless you’re a subscriber and read my 📎 Portfolio section. It’s been one of my investing weapons for some years now, and I can’t stress enough how crucial it is to have a top-tier capital allocator at the helm of an investment.
For those less familiar with Canadian equities or ex-US small/mid-caps, you may not have heard of Topicus (TOI.V)—a serial acquirer of Vertical Market Software (VMS) businesses based in the Netherlands. But you might have heard of Constellation Software (CSU) and its legendary founder at the helm: 📎 Mark Leonard. 🎅
If not, no worries—I’ll be covering the Constellation ecosystem (CSU, Topicus, and another spin-off) in a future Hidden Gems series coming later this year.
For now, let’s focus on the technical setup, which looks as good as it gets—especially following the recent market-wide sell-off.
Technical Setup – Breaking Out Beyond ATH
Topicus’ 2021 spin-off from Constellation Software (CSU) initially led to a Covid-driven buying spree, pushing the stock up too quickly. But instead of sustaining unsustainable highs, it built a multi-year base, bottoming at CAD $60 back in 2022 and gradually setting up for a true breakout—which we’re witnessing now, in real-time.
What could be more bullish than a stock discovering new (price) frontiers, aka All-Time-High (ATH)? Well, very few things indeed 👇
✅ First breakout attempt at CAD $140 was rejected amid a broad market sell-off, but the stock is holding up well.
✅ Last week’s second breakout attempt came on strong volume, signaling conviction.
✅ Earnings were stellar📎 TOI earnings, and with aggressive acquisitions ramping up recently, 2025 could be even stronger.
Key Indicators
🔹 MACD: Bullish setup above the zero line, primed for renewed positive momentum.
🔹 Volume: Clear signs of accumulation (better seen on the daily chart)—buyers are stepping in to push past the ATH wall.
🔹 Support Levels:
📌 Key level to watch: CAD $140—previous ATH, now should act as support.
Final Take
One of the most convincing setups in the software sector amid recent market volatility outside the US. I’ll save the deeper dive for an upcoming Hidden Gems edition on the Constellation Universe later this year. Stay tuned!
That’s all! Stay safe and stay sane in this volatile market! 🌬️