💼 Expanse Stocks: Behind-The-Scenes

Explore my Portfolio's Composition, Valuation & Performance (Quarterly Updates) ➕ Paid Subscribers get access to Portfolio Holdings, Trades, Valuation Models & Investing Methodology (Biweekly Updates)

Nikotes

Oct 21, 2024

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Welcome Explorer! Behind the Scenes 🎞️

What’s Behind?

Free access to 🗓️ Quarterly Updates (Last Update: 29-Mar-2026)

📰 What’s new? Find links to my latest articles and other news
❔ Who is behind Expanse Stocks? Get to know me better
📈 Quarterly Report – News & portfolio updates
🧐 Portfolio Composition by Industry and Geography, plus Valuation Metrics.
📊 Performance Tracking: Money-weighted returns compared to key benchmarks
❎ Valuation Metrics: Tools to monitor and assess portfolio quality

➕ Dive deeper

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🔗 Portfolio Corner - 🗓️ Monthly Updates (Last Update: 29-May-2026)

📈 Monthly Report – Portfolio updates, recent moves & watchlist additions
💼 Full Portfolio Access – Holdings, valuation metrics & performance tracking
📊 Valuation Tools – DCF, reverse DCF, capital efficiency & growth models
🎧 Podcast Picks – Monthly handpicked episodes on business & investing
🔎 Stock Picking Framework – My methodology & investing philosophy
🎯 Swing Trading – Short-term strategy & latest swing trades

📰 What’s New?

📚 Articles

💸 General Investing
💎 Hidden Gems Series
✨ Annual Specials – Annual Letters, Investing Philosophy, Industry Write-ups & Top Picks of the Year
📚 Resources for Investors
📢 Latest Stock News → Earnings Digests & other related news
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💼 Portfolio Corner – Holdings, valuation models, trades, performance & more!
🤫 Exclusive Sections – From select articles, Deep Dive Briefs & Hidden Gems

👀 Recent Releases!

💸 Software Darwinism, Software Darwinism 2.0 & Software Darwinism 3.0 → We talk AI, SaaS, VMS and Where the CSU family stands
💎 Hidden Gems: Sixth Edition → A Primer on TerraVest Industries
🔎 Medpace: Revisiting the Thesis in 2026
🔎 Deep Dive Brief: Norbit ASA

👀 Coming Soon

💎 Hidden Gems: Seventh Edition —> 2 Nordics Niches, early stage.
New Article Format Coming: Short analysis briefs on the watchlist stocks I currently find most interesting (or am digging into more deeply):
- where I see the opportunity,
- what I like,
- and what keeps me from pulling the trigger.
(Will be partially open to read, the rest will be kept available for paid subsribers).

❔ Who is Expanse Stocks

I’m Diego (Twitter/X: @dcurras1, LinkedIn: diegocurras) also known as @Nikotes in the Stocktwits community—a scientist at heart, software solutions engineer by trade, and a long-time investor and swing trader by passion.

My love for science drives my analytical approach, and after nine years in the market, I’m here to share what I’ve learned.

I believe in the power of ideas, collaboration, and continuous learning. I hope you find this blog useful and, if you do, feel free to subscribe and stick around.

🧐 Portfolio Composition & Strategy

Overall Portfolio Breakdown

Last Update: 29-Mar-2026

🔹 Active Investing (100%)

High-Quality Growth Stocks (100%) – Focused on durable, fundamentally strong businesses with long-term growth potential.
High-Growth & Speculative Plays (0%) – No exposure currently; reserved for higher-risk swing trades.

🔹 Note: 5% of my portfolio is currently held as cash in a separate money market account, ready to deploy for new opportunities in 2025.

Why I Prefer an Active Investing Strategy

As both a long-term investor and occasional trader, I know how hard it is to outperform the market consistently—especially in recent years, with US indexes like SPY and QQQ delivering double-digit returns and outperforming +90% of active managers. The reality is that outpacing the market year after year is tough.

But I also believe individual investors have an edge over professionals. We don’t need to justify our performance every quarter or compare returns to benchmarks in the same way institutions do. This freedom allows us to stay patient, focus on long-term gains, and ride our investments with minimum pressure.

For me, it’s not just about returns—it’s also about staying engaged, learning from market trends, and having the freedom to explore high-quality, durable growth stocks and high-growth speculative plays that intrigue me.

📈 Quarterly Report

March 2026 Portfolio Update – Another Month of the Same Thing: Volatility.

Volatility was once again the name of the game in March… wait, haven’t I already said this this year?

Yes, January and February looked very similar. But now, the indexes appear to be breaking down as the bear market in the MAG7 is accelerating.

Portfolio performance hasn’t been great heading into the end of Q1. That said, I continued adding new capital and made a couple of rotations: one within the MAG7 and another within my Nordic small-cap exposure.

Thanks for following along,

—Nikotes

If you'd like full access to portfolio holdings and recent moves, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $0.39/day ($12/month) or $0.27/day ($100/year) and unlock the 🔗 Full Portfolio Content

Portfolio Composition by Industries & Geographies

Last Update: 29-Mar-2026

I try to limit the nº of long-term holdings to 15. Currently, I own 11 names down from 12 positions at the end of Q4 2025.

For my long-term portfolio, diversification is non-negotiable.

Of course, I’m well aware of the phenomenal outperformance of U.S. equities over the past decade, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading the way. U.S. equities have benefited from a combination of factors: a pro-growth capitalist environment, the dominance of the dollar, investor-friendly policies, and technological leadership. Add to that, robust financial institutions and a proactive Federal Reserve, and it becomes clear why the U.S. market has outpaced much of the world (nod to China).

However, markets are inherently cyclical, and conditions may change. The chart below speaks for itself:

US market vs Rest of the World. Data Sources: Morningstar, Bloomberg, and Hartford Funds

My portfolio weighting reflects the current reality of U.S. dominance, but markets have a habit of shifting when most people least expect it. As a long-term investor, I believe spreading investments across industries, sectors, and regions builds resilience. Diversification cushions against regional risks and taps into new growth opportunities, ensuring the portfolio remains durable through market shifts—because staying power matters as much as returns.

📊 Portfolio Performance

Last Update: 29-Mar-2026

My original portfolio dates back to November 2017, which I believe is a long enough horizon to gauge performance. I’m not the same investor and trader I was then—mistakes were made, but important lessons were learned.

I only felt completely at ease with my long-term portfolio's composition, strategy, and risk tolerance at the end of 2022, so I’ll be sharing returns from January 2023 —also coinciding with the consolidation of my entire long-term portfolio in one single broker (excluding Swing Trades, if I play them I do it on a different broker).

I use both Time-Weighted Returns and Money-Weighted Returns to measure my portfolio’s performance. Together, they provide a more complete picture.

I go into more details about this approach in my article: 📎 Calculating Portfolio Returns & Why Investing is Personal

Note: Returns shown by Interactive Brokers are calculated in EUR and may be affected by FX volatility.

Expanse Stocks Annualized Returns (MWR) vs S&P 500 (SPY) and Vanguard Total World (VT) since Inception Jan-2023

While YTD or Monthly returns are commonly shared by many, they can be misleading for assessing long-term returns. I consider at least a 5-years horizon is more appropriate for evaluation. The compounding effect means that past performance significantly impacts our overall return, making longer-term perspectives more revealing.

I am quite satisfied with my portfolio returns so far, but it's definitely too early to evaluate long-term performance.

✖ Valuation Metrics

Last Update: 29-Mar-2026

Expanse Stocks Portfolio Statistics, Source: Fiscal.ai, Get 20% off + first 2 months free with Fiscal.ai from any subscription plan. Claim it 🔗 **here**

Here are key metrics of my current Portfolio I use to monitor and assess its quality:

Growth & Durability ✅
- Double digits forward EPS growth
- Double digits top line and EPS CARG (3y-avg and 5y-avg)
Standout Margins & Operational Excellence ✅
- Operating margin >25% and EBITDA margin >30%
- High FCF Margins >20% and Net Profit Margin around 20%
Capital Efficiency ✅
- High Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) >15% and high ROCE > 20%, indicating an efficient use of invested funds to generate profitable returns
- FCF Conversion > 100%, showing high efficiency to turn profits into actual cash flow
Financial Sustainability
- Fwd. FCF Yield - indicating ability to generate cash and sustain operations - at 3.12%. A bit low currently as some of my heavy-weighted companies are richly valued and going through a high Capex cycle 🟡
- Positive Forward P/E, EV/FCF and EV/OCF, although currently trending at a relatively high multiple 🟡
Low Leverage, Low Dilution ✅
- Net Debt/EBITDA < 1, reflecting ability to manage debt and a good financial health
- Total Debt against Capitalization around 40%, below the 50% ratio of the S&P 500 index constituents.
- Shares Outstanding Growth of the overall Portfolio is virtually at 0%. Dilution is minimal which is key as a long-term shareholder.

📌 NOTE: Some positions in my long-term portfolio are growth companies or have non-normalized earnings, which can distort valuation multiples (like P/E, EV/FCF and FCF Growth).

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🔗 Portfolio Corner - 🗓️ Monthly Updates (Last Update: 29-May-2026)

📈 Monthly Report – Portfolio updates, recent moves & watchlist additions
💼 Full Portfolio Access – Holdings, valuation metrics & performance tracking
📊 Valuation Tools – DCF, reverse DCF, capital efficiency & growth models
🎧 Podcast Picks – Monthly handpicked episodes on business & investing
🔎 Stock Picking Framework – My methodology & investing philosophy
🎯 Swing Trading – Short-term strategy & latest swing trades
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