💼 Expanse Stocks: Behind-The-Scenes
Explore my portfolio's composition, strategy, valuation metrics, and performance. Premium subscribers get full access to portfolio holdings, swing trades, and my stock-picking methodology.
Welcome to the Expanse Stocks Behind the Scenes! 🎞️
What’s Behind?
Free access to 🗓️ Quarterly Updates (Last Update: 23-Dec-2024)
📰 What’s new? Find links to my latest articles and other news
❔ Who is behind Expanse Stocks? Get to know me better
🧐 Portfolio Composition by Industry and Geography, plus Valuation Metrics.
📊 Performance Tracking: Money-weighted returns compared to key benchmarks
❎ Valuation Metrics: Tools to monitor and assess portfolio quality
➕ If you want to dive deeper:
Unlock Premium Content – For just $0.39/day ($12/month) or $0.27/day ($100/year) with the annual plan!
📎 Full Portfolio Content - 🗓️ Biweekly Updates (Last Update: 28-Feb-2025)
💼 Full Portfolio Access – Holdings, Valuation metrics & Performance tracking
📈 Live Trade Updates – My latest trades & watchlist additions
📊 DCF & Reverse-Engineered DCF Models + Capital Efficiency Models (NEW) – Download proprietary valuation tools
🔎 Stock Picking Methodology – Learn my long-term investment strategy
🎯 Swing Trading Strategy – My short-term trading approach
💬 Private Community Chat - 📎 Learn more
🔐 Full access to all my articles
📰 What’s new?
📌 Free-to-Read Articles (📎 linked below)
🔎 Deep Dives Brief – ⛅ Cloudflare | 👷♂️ Parsons | 𓇲 MPS | 🥼 Medpace | 🔌 Arista Networks
💎 Hidden Gems - Latest: Third Edition (2 British small-cap treasures)
🤏 Monthly Picks +🎅 Christmas Special: Top 5 Picks for 2025
💸 General Investing - Latest: Understanding ROIC, ROIIC, and ROCE & Top articles: DCF & Reverse-Engineered DCF + Moaty Software Companies
💬 Join my Chat! ( 📎 Learn more)
🔐 Paid Subscriber Exclusives
💎 Hidden Gems - Special Editions + exclusive sections from recent Hidden Gems articles
🎁 Bonus Picks - From 🎅 Christmas Special
📊 DCF & Reverse DCF Models – Download in 📎 Portfolio Section
👀 Coming Next
💎 Hidden Gems - Special Edition II (Paid Subscribers)
🤏 Monthly Specials - March 2025
❔ Who is Expanse Stocks
I’m Diego (Twitter/X: @dcurras1, LinkedIn: diegocurras) also known as @Nikotes in the Stocktwits community—a scientist at heart, software solutions engineer by trade, and a long-time investor and swing trader by passion.
My love for science drives my analytical approach, and after eight years in the market, I’m here to share what I’ve learned.
I believe in the power of ideas, collaboration, and continuous learning. I hope you find this blog useful and, if you do, feel free to subscribe and stick around.
🧐 Portfolio Composition & Strategy
I don’t believe in rigid distinctions—like growth vs. quality or passive vs. active investing—since markets are far more nuanced. Instead, my approach blends these strategies, reflecting both my long-term goals and short-term instincts as a swing trader. After more than eight years of trial and adjustment, I finally feel my portfolio strikes the right balance.
Overall Portfolio Breakdown
Last Update: 23-Dec-2024
Note: Average weights into passive and actively managed investments are are flexible, as I adjust between ETF positions and individual stocks based on emerging opportunities.
Passive Investing (0%)
Over the past eight weeks, I’ve sold off my remaining ETFs, as stretched index multiples and increasing concentration make passive investing less appealing. I now see greater opportunities in select individual stocks, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Active Investing (100%)
High-quality, durable growth stocks (87.7%) with strong fundamentals
High-Growth & Speculative Plays (12.3%), allocated to disruptors for long-term investment and/or swing trades for higher-risk, short-term opportunities
Note: Cash (representing 10% of my total actively managed portfolio) is currently held in my money market account, reserved to increase my active investment portfolio allocation in 2025.
Why I Prefer an Active Investing Strategy
As both a long-term investor and swing trader, I know how hard it is to outperform the market consistently—especially in recent years, with U.S. indexes like SPY and QQQ delivering double-digit returns and outperforming +90% of active managers. The reality is that outpacing the market year after year is a monumental task—one that even seasoned pros struggle with.
But I also believe individual investors have an edge over professionals. We don’t need to justify our performance every quarter or compare returns to benchmarks in the same way institutions do. This freedom allows us to stay patient, focus on long-term gains, and ride out short-term market swings without pressure.
For me, it’s not just about returns—it’s also about staying engaged, learning from market trends, and having the freedom to explore high-quality, durable growth stocks and high-growth speculative plays that intrigue me.
Portfolio Composition by Industries & Geographies
Last Update: 23-Dec-2024
I try to limit the nº of long-term holdings to 25. Currently, I own 25 names.
For my long-term portfolio, diversification is non-negotiable.
Of course, I’m well aware of the phenomenal outperformance of U.S. equities over the past decade, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading the way. U.S. equities have benefited from a combination of factors: a pro-growth capitalist environment, the dominance of the dollar, investor-friendly policies, and technological leadership. Add to that robust financial institutions and a proactive Federal Reserve, and it becomes clear why the U.S. market has outpaced much of the world (nod to China).
However, markets are inherently cyclical, and conditions may change. The chart below speaks for itself:
My portfolio weighting reflects the current reality of U.S. dominance, but markets have a habit of shifting when most people least expect it. As a long-term investor, I believe spreading investments across industries, sectors, and regions builds resilience. Diversification cushions against regional risks and taps into new growth opportunities, ensuring the portfolio remains durable through market shifts—because staying power matters as much as returns.
Not a free member yet? Join Expanse Stocks for free if you’d like to receive more content like this and get access to some of my free research (Deep dives, “Monthly Specials” Picks, Hidden Gems Screeners, Stock News and more)
📊 Portfolio Performance
Last Update: 23-Dec-2024
My original portfolio dates back to November 2017, which I believe is a long enough horizon to gauge performance. I’m not the same investor and swing trader I was then—mistakes were made, but important lessons were learned.
I only felt completely at ease with my long-term portfolio's composition, strategy, and risk tolerance at the end of 2022, so I’ll be sharing returns from January 2023 —also coinciding with the consolidation of my entire long-term portfolio (excluding Swing Trades) in one single broker.
Here is the Money-Weighted Return of the Expanse Stocks Portfolio since January 2023, compared to SPY and the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund:
While YTD or Monthly returns are commonly shared by many, they can be misleading for assessing long-term returns. I consider at least a 5-years horizon is more appropriate for evaluation. The compounding effect means that past performance significantly impacts our overall return, making longer-term perspectives more revealing.
I am quite satisfied with my long-term portfolio returns, but it's definitely to early to evaluate long-term performance.
✖ Valuation Metrics
Last Update: 23-Dec-2024
Here are key metrics of my current Portfolio I use to monitor and assess its quality:
When I look closely at my long-term Portfolio statistics, I see some interesting takes:
Growth but also durability ✅
Double digits forward EPS growth
Double digits top line and EPS CARG (3y-avg and 5y-avg)
Standout margins and operational excellence ✅
Operating margin and EBITDA margin between 20-30%
Positive FCF Margins and Net Profit Margin close to 20%
Capital Efficiency ✅
High Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), indicating an efficient use of invested funds to generate profitable returns
FCF and OCF Conversion > 100%, showing high efficiency to turn profits into actual cash flow
Sustainability
FCF Yield - indicating ability to generate cash and sustain operations - at 3.26%. A bit low but still still solid, given current high-valuation environment and some of my heavy-weighted companies going through a high Capex cycle 🟡
Positive Forward P/E, EV/FCF and EV/OCF, although currently trending at a relatively high multiple 🟡
Low Leverage ✅
Net Debt/EBITDA < 1, reflecting ability to manage debt and a good financial health
NOTE: Some positions in my long-term portfolio are growth companies distorting multiples.
Ready to dive deeper? Here’s what I offer and how I can help you
➕ Unlock Premium Content – For just $0.39/day ($12/month) or $0.27/day ($100/year) with the annual plan!
📎 Full Portfolio Content - 🗓️ Biweekly Updates (Last Update: 28-Feb-2025)
💼 Full Portfolio Access – Holdings, Valuation metrics & Performance tracking
📈 Live Trade Updates – My latest trades & watchlist additions
📊 DCF & Reverse-Engineered DCF Models + Capital Efficiency Models (NEW) – Download proprietary valuation tools
🔎 Stock Picking Methodology – Learn my long-term investment strategy
🎯 Swing Trading Strategy – My short-term trading approach
💬 Private Community Chat - 📎 Learn more
🔐 Full access to all my articles
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