ASML Q2 2025
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Financial Snapshot: Q2 2025
Key Highlights:
๐น Net Sales: โฌ7.69B (Est. โฌ7.51B) ๐ข | EPS: โฌ5.90 (Est. โฌ5.22) ๐ข
๐น Gross Margin: 53.7% (Est. 51.9%) ๐ข
๐น Net Bookings: โฌ5.54B (Est. โฌ4.80B) ๐ข; -1% YoY and +41% QoQ โ For those still focused on QoQ net bookings beats, this Q delivered. But if, like me, you're paying closer attention to total backlog, the real picture is starting to come into focus. I'll dive deeper into that in the Outlook & Guidance section and expand on it in the Final Take below.
๐น Net Income: โฌ2.29B; UP +45% YoY
CC Breakdown & Management Themes
AI is the Unquestionable Growth Engine
CEO Christophe Fouquet was unequivocal: โArtificial intelligence is currently the main driver for growth for both Logic and Memory.โ This theme was the central pillar of the call. Demand from customers adding capacity in the most advanced nodes for AI applications is fueling growth in Logic, while Memory remains robust due to investment in HBM and DDR5. This is directly reflected in the bookings, where Logic accounted for 84% of the โฌ5.5 billion total in Q2.
EUV Business Strength & The Shift from Multi-Patterning to Single Exposure
A core theme was ASML's role in improving its customers' manufacturing economics. As chip features shrink, fabricating a single layer on a wafer can require multiple complex exposure steps (multi-patterning). This process is expensive, time-consuming, and increases the risk of defects.
ASMLโs new, more productive tools are key to solving this. CEO Fouquet explained that the higher throughput of the new NXE:3800 Low-NA EUV tool "allows customers to shift more multi-patterning layers to single exposure," which in turn helps them "reduce complexity, reduce yield loss and improve cycle time."
CFO Roger Dassen provided details of the outlook for the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) business, projecting "approximately 30% increase of the EUV business" for the full year. This growth is being achieved through higher throughput from the new NXE:3800 tools, allowing customers to meet their โ30% extra capacityโ needs with a similar number of Low-NA systems as last year.
High-NA Progress & Margin Impact
On the technology front, ASML is making steady progress with its next-generation platform, now working with three High-NA customers. The company shipped its first EXE:5200 High-NA system, the tool intended for high-volume manufacturing.
However, management was clear that these early systems are margin dilutive in the short-term. The recognition of more High-NA tools in the second half is a key reason for the guided-down gross margin, which is expected to be around 50% for H2 2025.
On the other hand, according to CEO Fouquet the new EXE:5200 High-NA system that will be used in production will achieve a โ60% increase in efficiency compared to the EXE:5000 High-NA currently used by customersโ R&D teamsโ. This efficiency gain is key to justify the need for this technology and marks a critical milestone in preparing customers for the next generation of chipmaking.
Geopolitical and Macro Uncertainty Remains an Overhang
While the technological demand picture is clear, both executives highlighted growing uncertainty for 2026, coming from โmacroeconomic and geopolitical consideration... and that includes, of course, tariffs.โ Management claims they are working to mitigate the direct impacts of potential tariffs on systems and parts shipped to the US but acknowledged that the indirect macroeconomic impact remains "very uncertain."
Business & Regional Highlights
Q2 saw some interesting shifts in the sales mix compared to the prior quarter:
By End-Use: The strength in AI was evident as Logic system sales grew 16% sequentially, accounting for 69% of net system sales, while Memory sales declined 28% after a very strong Q1.
By Technology: In a notable reversal from Q1, DUV system sales grew 19% sequentially, while EUV system sales declined by -16.5%. Despite shipping fewer EUV units (11 in Q2 vs. 14 in Q1), the EUV Average Selling Price (ASP) increased 6% q/q to approximately โฌ244 million, reflecting a richer mix of the new, more productive NXE:3800 tools.
By Region: The geographic mix algo changed substantially. Sales to Taiwan (TSM) more than doubled sequentially, making it the top region at 35% of system sales. In contrast, sales to South Korea (-54%) and the US (-39%) saw sharp declines from a high base in Q1. China remained a stable contributor at 27% of sales.
Outlook & Guidance
ASML reaffirmed outlook for both the upcoming quarter and the full year, as well as its long-term targets.
Key Highlights:
๐น FY25 Revenue Growth: ~15% YoY (Prior: โฌ30โ35B) โ unchanged
๐น FY25 Gross Margin: ~52% (Prior: 51%โ53%) โ unchanged
๐น Q3 Revenue: โฌ7.4Bโโฌ7.9B (Est. โฌ8.21B) ๐ก
๐น Q3 Gross Margin: 50%โ52% (Est. 51.4%) ๐ก
Bookings and Forward Visibility: Bookings and the resulting total backlog now provide approximately 80% coverage for 2026 revenue estimates, suggesting 2026 will be another growth year, though management stopped short of an official commitment.
Long-Term (2030) Outlook: The 2030 targets of โฌ44-โฌ60 billion in revenue and a 56-60% gross margin remain intact.